B1G Power Rankings – Week of 10/5/2015

All season, I’ll be ranking the teams in the Big Ten from one to Maryland.  To see my predictions for how the season will play out, click here.

As always, if you think I’m right, wrong, or clinically insane, let me know in the comments.

Prepare to disagree…

1. Ohio State.  The Buckeyes can continue to muddle and struggle along for another month as they should be heavy favorites over Rutgers, Minnesota, and Illinois.  But eventually, they’ll have to play championship level football.
2. Michigan State.  Yes, Sparty’s win was an absolute fluke, but a win is a win.
3. Michigan.  “Golly gee, what an unfortunate way to lose a game in the final seconds” – Mike Riley, probably.  The Wolverines are the first of four teams taking this week off, which means a lot of time to potentially dwell on that epic loss.
4. Iowa.  The Hawkeyes continue to take care of business and get a week off to rest and prepare for a stretch run at an undefeated regular season.
5. Wisconsin.  There is a pretty steep drop off between # 4 and #5 in the league, and one could make an argument for a handful of teams in this spot.  Wisconsin gets the nod for now, but I’m willing to drop them down if another team gets hot.
6. Penn State.  I’ll be honest, this is probably way too high for the Nitany Lions, but their lone conference loss is to the league’s best team.  Nobody below them can make that claim.
7. Illinois.  Speaking of being ranked too high, here are the Fighting Illini.  They were idle last week after beating Nebraska and narrowly lowing to Iowa.  Are they a legitimate middle tier team?  This week’s game against Wisconsin will go a long way to deciding that.
8. Northwestern.  After starting out at a blazing 5-0, the Wildcats are falling apart losing to Michigan and Iowa by a combined score of 78-10.  Pat Fitzgerald’s team usually plays Nebraska tough, so they could get back on track with a win in Lincoln.
9. Nebraska.  It’s tough to overstate just how important the 48-25 win over Minnesota was for this team.  Not only does it give them possession of the $5 Bits of Broken Chair trophy for the first time, it also takes a lot of heat off of Mike Riley and his team.  Let’s see if they can continue their momentum against Northwestern.
10. Minnesota.  Good news:  after getting thumped at home by Nebraska, the Gophers have a week off to get things back on track.  Bad news:  their next three games are Michigan, at Ohio State, and at Iowa.  Yikes.
11. Indiana.  The bottom tier starts out with the confusing Hoosiers.  They go into the Horseshoe and hold Ohio State to 34 points.  Then two weeks later, they allow Rutgers to score 55.  The Hoosiers have an upset opportunity if they can catch Sparty in a Wolverine hangover.
12. Rutgers.  I missed last week, so I did not get a chance to properly mock Rutgers for losing an upset chance against Michigan State by spiking the ball on fourth down.  It’s a good thing they beat Indiana, as the Scarlet Knights may not win again for another month.
13. Purdue.  Losers of five straight, the Boilermakers limp into their bye week dangerously close to being the first conference team eliminated from a bowl game.
14. Maryland.  The Terrapins allowed 42 points to Idle last week.

B1G Power Rankings – Week of 10/5/2015

All season, I’ll be ranking the teams in the Big Ten from one to Maryland.  To see my predictions for how the season will play out, click here.

As always, if you think I’m right, wrong, or clinically insane, let me know in the comments.

Prepare to disagree…

1. Ohio State – Yeah, I know the Buckeyes are still not clicking on all cylinders.  But a game with Maryland should be a good way to work out some of the kinks.
2. Michigan State – What do the Spartans have to do to jump Ohio State?  For starters, they can avoid falling asleep at the wheel like they did with Purdue.  They were probably looking ahead to Rutgers.  Put away the lesser teams and move on.
3. Northwestern.  Northwestern is off to an amazing start, and a shutout over Minnesota makes them the current best of the West.  Now the challenge is to keep that title over their next three games (at Michigan, Iowa, at Nebraska).
4. Michigan.  I thought about having the Wolverines at #3, but gave the nod to Northwestern for their overall body of work.  Besides, blowing out Maryland isn’t exactly newsworthy.  Beat the Wildcats and we’ll talk.
5. Iowa.  Who is this team, and what have they done with Ferentz’s Follies?  I’m not sold on Iowa in the long-term, but give them credit for what they’ve done so far.
6. Indiana.  Was taking Ohio State deep into the fourth a sign of progress or a fluke?  For progress, the Hoosiers will need to beat Penn State this week, not just play them close.
7. Wisconsin.  The injury bug has hit the Badgers hard.  Fortunately, their next four opponents (NU, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers) are a combined 9-7, with Illinois having the best record of the bunch.
8. Illinois.  Give credit to the Illini for hanging around and finding a way to beat Nebraska.  But they’ll need to play better for the other 59 minutes to beat Iowa.
9. Minnesota.  Minnesota’s total points in 2015 (77) will likely be matched by Baylor when they play Kansas this weekend.  The lack of offense at Minnesota is startling – even by Big Ten standards.
10. Penn State.  I continue to be underwhelmed by what I see out of Penn State.  I’m not sure if that will change this year.
11. Nebraska.  You have to go back a long ways to find a more surprising and painful conference loss than Illinois.  The Huskers must bounce back, and quick.
12. Purdue.  Credit to the Boilers for not quitting against Michigan State.  If they can score 21 point this week, they’ll have a great chance against Minnesota.
13. Rutgers.  Lee Barfknecht of the Omaha World-Herald had a great line on Saturday:  “Rutgers is idle, and should remain that way.”  No arguments here.
14. Maryland.  The Terps should be thankful that Hurricane Joaquin knocked them out of prime time.  Maryland’s three losses have been by 21, 39, and 28 points.  On a related note, South Florida (who Maryland beat by 18) must be a horrible team.

Big Ten Predictions – 2015

The Big Ten conference schedule kicks off in full this weekend, which means it’s time to predict how the teams will finish within their division.  I purposefully wait to make my picks until the non-conference schedule is over, so I can have a better idea of who is a contender and who is a pretender.  Given my prognosticating history, I need all the help I can get.

Once conference play gets rolling, I’ll do a weekly ranking of Big Ten teams 1 through 14, but for the initial round we’ll keep it East and West.  As we’ll discuss, the two divisions could not be more different this year.  Let’s start with the East…

East Division

The second edition of the Big Ten East reminds me a lot of the Big Eight of the 1980s.  Ohio State and Michigan State play the role of Nebraska and Oklahoma – legitimate national championship contenders, who will fight for the title.  Michigan has the role of Colorado – a team with potential, but one that’s probably a few years away.  The other four teams will play the role of KU, KSU, ISU, MU, and OSU – teams that will peak at average and will pose little threat to the two big dogs.

1. Ohio State.  I know the Buckeyes have not been clicking on all cylinders.  Quarterback is still a bit of a question, but this program has earned the benefit of the doubt until somebody knocks them down.  Also, they host Michigan State in the Horseshoe.
2. Michigan State.  Oregon’s blowout loss took some of the shine off of what initially looked like a big Spartan win.  Regardless, it’s still the best win by a Big Ten team this year.  Michigan State has a challenging conference schedule with road games at Michigan, Nebraska, and Ohio State.  If they win all three of those, they will have earned the division title.
3. Michigan.  It’s not that I think Hail to the Harbaughs are the third best in the division, it’s that nobody else has impressed me enough to be ranked ahead of the Wolverines.  If I could, I’d insert a blank space to help illustrate the gap OSU/MSU and Michigan.
4. Indiana.  Picking the Hoosiers fourth is as much about the mediocrity of the division as it is about Indiana discovering how to play non-awful football.  They may be 4-0 now, but there is a good chance they;ll be 5-3 or even 4-4 by November 1.
5. Penn State.  There are good arguments to be made for any of the three remaining teams to be picked last.  From what I’ve seen of Penn State, they look rather dreadful despite having one of the finest quarterback talents in the country in Christian Hackenberg (hashtag sarcasm font).  But, they already own a head to head win over Rutgers.  Expect the Nitany Lions to beat a team they have no business beating, but to lose a lot of ugly games.
6. Maryland.  In my first draft, I had Maryland ahead of Penn State.  But as miserable as PSU has looked, they haven’t been blown out by West Virginia and – yikes – Bowling Green.  Maryland’s season may be uglier than their uniforms, which is saying a lot.
7. Rutgers.  I’m a little disappointed that Rutgers beat Kansas.  Had they lost to the Jayhawks, Rutgers would have been locked into the #14 spot in the weekly power rankings for the season, no questions asked.    Seriously, it might have taken wins over Ohio State and Michigan State to remove them from the cellar.  As it is, the odds are very good the Scarlet Knights will have more suspensions (five, not including coach Kyle Flood) than wins.

West Division

The West should be wild this year, as every team except Illinois and Purdue has a puncher’s chance of winning a trip to Indianapolis be blown out by a far better team from the East.  Before the season, this looked like a three horse race between Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Minnesota.  But strong starts from Iowa and Northwestern have pushed them into the conversation.  Predicting an order of finish is like flipping a five-sided coin – it’s damn near impossible.  The two biggest factors in the West will likely be a) who can protect their home field and who has favorable cross-over games with the East.  Teams that can win on the road and/or avoid OSU and MSU will have a leg up.  Regardless, I’ll be surprised if a team wins this division with fewer than two losses.

1. Wisconsin.  Much like Ohio State, Wisconsin gets the nod based more on track record than clear potential.  The injury to Corey Clement is big (Husker fans, feel free to insert a cell phone joke here), and the NFL scouts aren’t lining up to see Joel Stave.  But the Badgers do have the easiest cross over games (Rutgers and at Maryland), have Iowa at home, and likely have a healthy mental edge on Nebraska.
2. Minnesota.  Arguably the best defense in the division, the Gophers would likely be a strong favorite if a) their offense was better and/or b) they didn’t have the toughest schedule in the division (Michigan and at Ohio State).  Still, you underestimate Minnesota at your own risk.
3. Nebraska.  The Huskers have the best offense in the division, a very strong run defense, and game-changing weapons on special teams.  But the Big Red has big issues with pass defense and pass rush, and is paper-thin at many critical positions.    There are other concerns with NU’s ability to avoid penalties and mental errors, and to avoid the one quarter each game where nothing goes right.  NU certainly has the talent and coaching to win the division, but this program needs to prove it can win big games again.
4. Northwestern.  In the relatively short time I’ve been following the Big Ten, one pattern has become clear:  When Northwestern gets preseason hype, they fall apart.  When the Wildcats are ignored, they are sneaky good.  This is a sneaky good year, having beaten Stanford and Duke (thus winning the Brainiac Cup).  October is big for the other NU:  if they can go 4-0 or 3-1 against Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, and Nebraska, they could coast into Indy.
5. Iowa.  Kirk Ferentz’s seat was getting very very hot, but four straight wins have the Hawkeye faithful ready for a return to glory  – or at least willing to hold off on shoving Ferentz out the door.  If he can get a program that has been mediocre (if not bad) in the last three years to Indy, he deserves a contract extension.  Cross over games with Maryland and at Indiana will help his cause.
6. Illinois.  It’s never good when you fire your head coach a week before the season starts, yet the Illini may be better for it – especially in the long run.  The issue in Champaign is talent and consistency.  Don’t be surprised if they play a spoiler role for one of the teams above them in the standings.
7. Purdue.  The bad news:  The Boilermakers do not currently have a win over a FBS team.  The good news:  Purdue probably could finish fifth or sixth in the East.

 

Big Ten Championship

If everything holds to form, we’ll see a repeat of Ohio State and Wisconsin in Indianapolis.  This time, the Badgers make the game interesting…for a quarter, before the Buckeyes rout them again.

Dark horse prediction:  Michigan State pulls the upset in Columbus and heads to Indy undefeated and ranked #1.  They face a Nebraska team who lost 35-17 to the Spartans in Lincoln as Connor Cook threw for 375 yards and five touchdowns.  This time, Cook goes out with an early injury and Mark Banker’s run defense shuts down the Spartans.  Mike Riley’s offense clicks on all cylinders as Nebraska shocks the nation with a 31-9 win.

B1G Reasons for Giving Thanks

As the name implies, Thanksgiving is a time to reflect upon all of the good things in your life and be grateful for what you have.

But what if you are a football team playing in what is widely believed to be the worst Power 5 conference in the country?  What does a team like Indiana, Michigan, or Nebraska have to be thankful for in 2014?

Glad you asked.  I believe that everybody should be able to give thanks for something – even if you sometimes have to dig a little to find anything worthy of your gratitude.

What do the schools of the Big Ten have to be thankful for this football season?  Plenty:

• Illinois:  Remember that time you dressed up like a team that didn’t look like Illinois?  And then you played like a team that didn’t look like Illinois?  That was pretty cool.
  

  “Wee! Nobody knows that we suck!” (photo credit: news-gazette.com)

• Indiana:  You may bewinless in conference play, but you still hold the league’s best non-conference win (at SEC East leading Missouri)
  

  Dear ESPN, Kindly put this in your SEC bias and smoke it.

• Iowa:  Forbes says you can now afford to fire Kirk Ferentz!
  

  My Iowa-born Mom is starting to regret her tattoo. (photo credit: cbssports.com)

• Maryland:  Jim Delany’s check of bailout money did not bounce.  Now you can buy more hideously ugly uniforms to demonstrate the pride you have in your state!
  

  Maryland, we wear these to honor you. (photo credit: lostlettermen.com)

• Michigan:  After failing with Rich Rod and BradyHoke, surely the third time will be the charm, right?  Right?
  

  Troll so hard (image courtesy elevenwarriors.com)

• Michigan State:  The continued employment of BradyHoke is more than enough for Spartan fans.
  

  If I were a Spartan, this would be my PC background.  Kudos to car-memes.com for this one.

• Minnesota:  Your coaching staff eats ice cream bars on the sideline of a frigid, snowy game without giving a single ____ what you think.
  

  “I wanted a Blizzard, not a damn Dilly Bar” (photo credit: athlonsports.com)

• Nebraska:  You never have to face Melvin Gordon again.  And depending on if you are aBo-leaver or aBo-liever, you may be thankful forPelini’s jobstatus as of this weekend.
  

  “I’m sorry I got you fired, Angry Coach” (photo credit: AP)

• Northwestern:  Nobody really has very high expectations for you, so it’s tough to ever have a “down” year.  Plus, Chick-fil-A for everyone!
  

  Nice touch with the Wildcat purple suit, KD (image credit dailycaller.com)

• Ohio State:  The odds are good that Urban Meyer won’t have to shame eat an entire Papa John’s pizza after this year’s Big Ten Championship.
  

  “No garlic butter?!? Why does everything bad happen to me??” (photo credit: USA Today)

• Penn State:  Despite the best efforts of the NCAA and Big Ten refs to screw you over, you can now go to a crappy bowl game (where refs from another conference will probably try to screw you over).
  

  B1G refs be like “Meh, close enough”.  (image credit: @Pauly_G220)

• Purdue:  Be very, very thankful that this guy went to Indiana instead of Purdue.  Plus – you still have that really big drum, which is kinda neat in a totally Purdue sort of way.
  

  The bigger the drum, the bigger the punchline (photo credit: purdue.edu)

• Rutgers:  Instead of getting beat by Houston,Cincy,UCF,andUConn, you now get blown out by Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Nebraska!  Welcome to theB1G time!
  

  If you want to be taken seriously when joining a prestigious academic conference, don’t treat your promotional copy like a 2 am text message (image credit: collegiatestadiums.com)

• Wisconsin:  For the next 300+ days, nobody can take away your FREEDOM!!! – even if they wanted that generic, ugly ass trophy.
  

  It’s never good when you need five guys to lift the trophy (photo credit: news.wisc.edu)

• And a bonus for the B1G Boss Man himself, Jim Delany:  Adding Maryland and Rutgers has TOTALLY made the conference stronger and more exciting.  The reputation of the conference is an all time high.
  

  Wait? That’s NOT Jim Delany? The eyebrows always fool me (image credit: muppet.wikia.com)