Stop Comparing Soccer to American Sports

In the days after the United States Women’s National Team winning the 2015 World Cup, I’ve been reading and hearing many bold proclamations (and/or hot takes) about how this victory means that soccer is on the rise, and it won’t be long before soccer surpasses one of the “four major sports” (football, baseball, basketball, hockey) in some manner – viewership, attendance, fans, etc.

Let’s just slow down for a minute.

Yes, soccer is arguably bigger in America than it has ever been.  The game has grown in popularity over the last 20+ years, and that growth shows no sign of stopping.  And yes, the World Cup final drew a huge TV rating, notably surpassing the viewership from Game 7 of the 2014 World Series and the decisive Game 6 of the 2015 NBA Finals.

But…

First, let’s address those TV numbers.  More accurately, let’s acknowledge that comparing the Women’s World Cup championship to the other two broadcasts is an apples to oranges comparison.  Yes, all three are “fruit” – decisive, championship games in their collective sport.  But the difference lies in the teams.  The World Series featured the Kansas City Royals and the San Francisco Giants.  The NBA Finals had the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Women’s World Cup had The United Freaking States of America.

I would argue a decent (if not sizable) percentage of the WWC audience tuned in not because they are soccer fans or because they enjoy watching soccer played at a high level by amazing athletes.  They tuned in because it was a chance to see America to win a prestigious global competition.

Who was the primary audience of Game 7 of the World Series?  Fans of the Giants (6th largest US television market) and the Royals (31st largest).  For Game 6 of the Finals, you have Warriors (again, 6th largest market) and Cavs fans (17th largest).  For the WWC, your primary audience is fans of America in EVERY market with a Fox affiliate.

It’s the same reason why NBC shells out billions of dollars for Olympic broadcast rights:  Americans love to watch other Americans competing (and winning) at a high level against top international competition – no matter the event.  I’m not saying that a U.S. versus Japan competition in say, water polo, would draw the same numbers as the World Cup final.  But I am saying the nation’s love and support for the red, white, and blue greatly surpasses the nation’s love and support for the Kansas City Royals.

Until the MLS Championship draws more viewers than the World Series, Stanley Cup, or NBA Finals, stop with this comparison.

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Without question, soccer is growing in America.  I won’t argue that.  But where is the peak?  You’ll find many credible voices who say soccer could become the “national pastime” or supplant baseball or hockey in the “big four” of American sports.

I disagree, especially in the short-term.

Soccer interest, at least in America, tends to be cyclical.  Setting aside the loyal fans of MLS and European leagues, a person who identifies themselves as “liking soccer” will get into the big tournaments (men’s and women’s World Cups, Olympics, etc.).  After those events end?  The interest tends to wane.

An article in the Seattle Times referenced a marketing-research study on “fan engagement” of Americans towards soccer, conducted after the last four men’s World Cup tournaments.  Every time, there was a significant drop off in interest after the tournament ended.

 

“You see the same pattern,’’ said (Robert) Passikoff (of Brand Keys), who added that his surveys are accurate within 3 percent. “You get high interest, high numbers during the tournament and then it’s ‘Thank you very much and goodbye.’ ’’

With other sports, he added, the numbers climb a bit during playoffs and championships but “you don’t see as high a fluctuation.’’

Personally, I wonder if the growth and expansion of soccer will follow a similar pattern to NASCAR.  There was a point in 1990’s / early 2000’s where NASCAR experienced phenomenal growth, with some saying that the sport was poised to join the big four.  Fast forward to the mid to late 2000’s and NASCAR’s popularity hit a big bump, with attendance and TV ratings taking a dive.  Obviously, that is not a perfect comparison – most notably, the millions of kids in youth soccer should help to sustain soccer’s rise – but NASCAR’s failure to join the Big Four should serve as a cautionary tale for soccer fans seeking to join the big time.

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So where will soccer be 15 or 20 years from now?  I fully expect that MLS will still be going strong, with 32 teams across the country playing in soccer-only stadiums in front of passionate crowds.  World Cups – both men’s and women’s – will still be events that grab headlines and national attention (especially when the U.S. is winning).  I would not be surprised if the United States has a true soccer superstar who is on par with the greatest players in the world.

But I don’t expect soccer to have bumped MLB, NHL, NBA, or especially the NFL from their perch as America’s favorite sports.

And that should be okay.

Excuses Miami Heat fans have for leaving early

Much is being made of the hundreds of Miami Heat fans who poured out of the arena with Miami down four points with less than 30 seconds to go in Game 6 of the NBA Finals.  I get it, nothing is more annoying than the “I gotta beat traffic” guy who blocks your view while his wife collects her designer purse.

Miami fans had a crappy reputation already, and this game isn’t going to help.  But it may not be fair to paint an entire fan base with one brush.  I’m sure some of these fans had valid, completely legit reasons for leaving an epic, gonna-talk-about-it-for-years game before the end.  Here are some of those excuses:

• “I wanted to buy a Tony Parker jersey before the game ended to show the world that I’m a longtime Spurs fan.”

• “I wanted to get home and tweet about LeBron not being able to finish what he starts.”

• “I was hoping to catch the last inning of the Marlins game.”

• “I’m more artificial than Cinderella at the ball, so I need to be home before midnight.”

• “I heard there was another bandwagon accepting riders outside.”

• “I’m a horrible fan and likely an awful person.”

• “Miami is all about being seen, so I was just parading around the arena.”

• “Security mentioned that Ray Lewis was back in town, so I needed to get outta there.”

• “Nordstrom’s was having a sale on white pants.”

• “We didn’t leave.  Five thousand of us all had to pee at the same time.”

• “I was afraid that Chris Bosh was going to morph into a giant praying mantis and destroy us all.”

• “The dagger of Tony Parker’s three pointer ruptured my boob job / pec implants.”

• “If I let an underprivileged youth sit in my court side seats, I can write them off, so I was going to look for some.”

• “I didn’t want to get a $10 parking ticket on my Mercedes SUV.”

• “I don’t really care about basketball, I just wanted the free ‘white-out’ t-shirt.”

• “It’s LeBron’s fault.  If he were more like Jordan, I wouldn’t have left.”

The Worldwide Leader (in beating dead horses)

Things I can remember, but are probably gone forever:

• MTV showing videos.
• ESPN’s SportsCenter showing highlights of games without 45 minutes of talking-head analysis.

SportsCenter was on the TV over lunch, and every time I looked up they had some different person on talking about Game 4 of the NBA Finals like it was the World Series of Olympic Super Bowls or something equally earth-shattering*.

*Like Brett Farve discussing a comeback, Tim Tebow being super-awesome, or an SEC team perfecting football.

Look – I get it, the NBA Finals are the championship for one of America’s major professional sports.  It deserves more coverage, insight, and analysis than a regular season between the Royals and Astros.  But it does not need wall-to-wall coverage with 17 different correspondents, reporters, and pundits* shoving their opinions down my throat like it is the gospel truth.

While I’m sure there are folks who want to watch the performance of every player broken down to the most micro of levels – but that should be a separate show on ESPN2, not the flagship program for sports scores and highlights.  For most sports fans, we don’t need to listen to you dissect the trumped-up story lines that you made up two days ago.

*As a side note, I like how ESPN has taken to showing the “resume” for some of their talking heads, such as their playing career or history covering a team or writing for a paper, as if to help boost their credibility.  I just wish that for Tim Legler’s resume they’d include his time with the Omaha Racers of the CBA.

So please, ESPN, let’s try to keep the game analysis to under 20 minutes and devote some time to other sporting events – such as the ones I might have missed while I was watching Game 4 of the NBA Finals.