Nebraska Should Leave the Big Ten

A lot has changed since the Nebraska Cornhuskers played their last college baseball game.

On March 11, 2020, the Huskers beat Northern Colorado 8-1, their third straight win. However, it would be the final game the Huskers played in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic cancelled the remainder of the season, the Big Ten tournament, and the College World Series.

Even though the pandemic is still very much on-going, college sports have mostly returned. The schedules for the Huskers football*, basketball, and volleyball seasons were all impacted by both the pandemic and mandates from the Big Ten office.

*My apologies if I triggered anybody’s PTSD caused by a summer of self-inflicted scheduling woes, anti-Nebraska rhetoric, and Sir Yacht tweets.

In a normal year, the college baseball season would be starting in a few short weeks. We would be reading about the 14″ inches of snow from last Monday’s storm that is forcing the team to practice indoors as they prepare to open their season in Arizona or Texas.

But this will not be a normal year. As of this post, there is no baseball schedule for 2021. The Big Ten Conference has yet to announce anything, although it is widely believed that the league will make teams play a conference-only schedule. Here is the latest information from Kendall Rogers of D1Baseball.com:

In more, continued baffling news out of the #BigTen, hearing the league is expected to ‘discuss’ the season structure later this week. No urgency or anything, guys. No signs of the #B1G backing off conference only at the moment, however.

— Kendall Rogers (@KendallRogers) February 2, 2021

The conference-only plan would be especially hard on a team like Nebraska that is a) and in need of experience for a young roster, and b) at the far western edge of the conference. The closest Big Ten team (Iowa) is 300 miles away. Penn State, Maryland, and Rutgers are all over 1,000 miles from Lincoln.

Of Nebraska’s 12 conference rivals in baseball (Wisconsin does not play baseball), the average distance from Lincoln is 740 miles. That is either a lot of time on airplanes with possibly infected passengers, or an even longer time counting wind turbines on I-80.

* * *

For a long time, I have been an advocate of schools like Nebraska belonging to two (or more) athletic conferences:

• A national, power conference for football and men’s basketball. Think the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big XII, and PAC 12. The Jayskers out there would still belong to the Big East for basketball.
• One (or more) regional conferences for Olympic & non-revenue sports. Probably the majority would belong to the same regional league, but there may be situations where a sport is not widely offered, or there is an incentive to play elsewhere.

My argument has always been primarily based on two indisputable facts:

1. Even in normal times, it is asinine – and fiscally irresponsible – to fly a 25+ student-athletes 1,200 miles to play a baseball series at Rutgers, when there are a dozen schools within a three hour drive. When athletic departments are laying off employees and cutting sports, it is indefensible.
2. FOX and ESPN aren’t paying billions of dollars for the TV rights to air regular season, collegiate Olympic sports. Bluntly, and with few exceptions, nobody is watching.

Here is what I wrote way back in 2013:

It just makes financial sense:  Schools can dramatically cut travel costs and operating expenses for sports that already lose money.  TV networks don’t get burdened with a bunch of lower end TV rights for volleyball matches, wrestling duals, and gymnastics meets that the average fan does not want to watch.  If there is an audience for SEC baseball or Big East lacrosse games, the smaller leagues can sell those rights independently.

Yes, it may be a little confusing for fans who have always identified their school with a single league to have to familiarize themselves with two different sets of conference rivals, but it sure beats cutting the baseball team because your new conference foes up north don’t play the sport, or losing the gymnastics team because it is too expensive to fly them all over the country for meets.

* * *

When I first made the two conference argument, I never expected that a power conference would be so openly apathetic about a sport – to the point where it might be a competitive disadvantage to stay.

But here we are.

It is brutally obvious that the Big Ten does not care about baseball, and they certainly don’t care about the 13 schools who field baseball teams.

Will that ever change? I joked that the best bet to spur Big Ten interest would be to rename the College World Series to the “Summer Rose Bowl”. Then I was reminded that a prestige Big Ten program (Michigan) was a game away from winning the most recent CWS in 2019.

So I’m not very optimistic.

* * *

To be crystal clear: I am in no way saying Nebraska football should leave the Big Ten.

The TV money is the best of any Power 5 conference. The academic perks and prestige are too damn good to give up.

Period.

As many (myself included) have written, the relationship between NU Football and the B1G could be a lot better – on both sides. But having the football team leave would be foolish and reckless.

That said, the University of Nebraska has 22 intercollegiate sports. For the vast majority* of them, it makes little sense to have your competition be in a different time zone.

*From a Nebraska perspective, volleyball would likely be an exception. The Big Ten is the premier volleyball league, and NU Volleyball is better for playing in that league. I imagine there are similar scenarios for other leagues / sports. If so, keep them under the power conference umbrella.

* * *

Let’s go back to that March 2020 baseball game against Northern Colorado. Fans of the baseball program know Northern Colorado well. And for good reason. In 16 of the last 17 seasons, the Bears have made the 458 mile trek from Greeley to Lincoln for a mid-week series against NU.

You remember the famed “500 mile radius” that used to get referenced in football recruiting? Here is what it looks like, centered precisely on A.D. Bill Moos’ office:

I’d imagine Moos could put together a very respectable baseball league, track meet, wrestling invitational, or pretty much anything else with teams inside this circle.

I would imagine that even if the Northern Colorado Bears don’t make the “Great Plains Conference”, they would still be invited to play at Haymarket Park on a sunny Wednesday in March.

And isn’t that ultimately the point?

Dear ESPN, Nebraska should NOT return to the Big XII

On Wednesday, Oklahoma’s president said the Big XII “should strive for” a 12-team league.  Since it is the end of June, when you’re more likely to see snowflakes than college football news*, several outlets pounced on the story and began speculation on who teams XI and XII might be.

*Or at least, college football news outside of recruiting and arrests.  Those two topics know no off-season.

One of those pieces came from ESPN’s Jake Trotter, who broke down 12 possible additions from most likely (BYU, Memphis, Boise State, Cincinnati, etc.), less likely (Florida State and Clemson, or other defectors from a Power 5 conference), down to the least likely:  Nebraska.

You’re reading that correctly:  somebody at the Worldwide Leader made a case for Nebraska going back to the Big XII.

Now, before I rip his rationale to shreds, it is worth mentioning in Trotter’s defense that he considers North Dakota State* – a current member of the FCS – a much more likely addition than Nebraska.  Whether or not this improves Trotter’s credibility is up to you.

*Be sure to give Trotter credit for this spectacular factoid about the Bison:  “They actually have as many wins against the Big 12 as Kansas does in the last five years.”  

But let’s face it:  at best, suggesting Nebraska as a “new” member of the Big XII is an ignorant pipe dream.  At worst, it’s click-bait trolling.

So where is Trotter wrong in his assessment?  Let’s go line by line.  Trotter’s words are in bold.  My responses are not.

*   *   *

Put a truth serum in many Nebraska fans, and they would probably admit their realignment to the Big Ten hasn’t been what they hoped it would be.

Okay – so Trotter actually comes out of the gate with an ugly truth.  I think there are many of us who expected an easier time than a combined 22-10 conference (counting the 2012 championship game) in football and expected dominance in other sports (i.e. baseball) has not materialized.  There are lots are reasons for this, but that is an entirely separate discussion.  But four seasons is a little quick for buyer’s remorse.

Also, it’s worth remembering that in my “State of the Husker Nation” poll last November, 58% of the nearly 6,000 respondents said the decision to join the Big Ten was not a mistake.  Only 18.5% said it was a mistake.

The Huskers have fallen into second-tier status in the Big Ten.

 

Agree to disagree here.  Yes, the NU brand is not as shiny as it was in the inaugural Big Ten season of 2011 (again, an entirely separate discussion).  But to say NU is second-tier is ludicrous.

B1G tiers off the top of my head:

Top-Tier

1. Ohio State.  The class of the conference.
2. Michigan.  Even after Rich Rod and Hoke, the Wolverines are a top-tier program.  Period.
3. Michigan State.  If you got that truth serum back out, how many Husker fans probably would trade straight up for MSU’s roster, coaches, and especially their recent success?
4. Nebraska.  Yes, Wisconsin has owned Nebraska, but I cannot (will not?) say the Badgers are the better program.
5. Wisconsin.  A top-tier program in any Power 5 conference.

Second-Tier

1. Penn State.  If not for the sanctions (and the tarnish to Paterno’s legacy), they are securely in the top-tier – and they may get back there soon.
2. Iowa.  The case could be made that Nebraska joining the Big Ten helped to knock the Hawkeyes to second-tier status.
3. Minnesota.  They’ve crept out of the dregs.
4. Northwestern.  At serious risk of falling out of the second-tier.

Bottom of the Barrel

1. Maryland.  Need to prove something to earn a promotion to second-tier, but they’re close.
2. Illinois.  Like Missouri in the 1980s and 90s – the potential is there.  The plan is not.
3. Indiana.  Is it basketball season yet?
4. Purdue.  Look!  We have a big drum!
5. Rutgers.  Still a head-scratching decision by Jim Delany.  You know you would mock to the Big XII if they took a school of Rutgers’ caliber.

They’re in the division opposite Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State, which reduces their number of marquee games.

Two things here:  1) Before the additional of Maryland and Rutgers, Nebraska was in the same division as Michigan and played an annual crossover game with Penn State.  Yes, the new geographic divisions have the marquee schools in the East, but remember:  2) In the old Big XII North, the marquee teams (Oklahoma, Texas, A&M) were in the opposite division.

Nebraska once played one of college football’s most storied rivalry games against Oklahoma. Today, Nebraska’s big rival is Iowa, which barely moves the needle in Lincoln, much less the rest of the country.

“Once” is the key word here.  For me, the NU-OU rivalry officially ended in the second year of the Big XII play – 1997 – when the two storied programs played their final annual contest before moving to the “play two years, take two years off” format that all North and South schools shared.  Had NU-OU remained an annual game (which was something OU did not want, by the way), I firmly believe it is much more difficult for NU to leave the XII in the first place.

As for Iowa, Trotter is correct that the game barely moves the needle in Lincoln.  But, surely Trotter would agree that it takes more than four seasons to build a strong rivalry (even if it does come with a generic, nondescript trophy sponsored by a grocery store).  Give the Iowa series a little more time before we declare it a dud – even if I believe that the Wisconsin game will likely surpass Iowa as NU’s hated rival.

Nebraska left the Big 12 primarily over its frustrations with the leadership at Texas.

That is a very oversimplified (if not completely inaccurate) statement.

If you were to ask me why NU left, Texas’s leadership doesn’t make the top three:

1. Nebraska needed stability, and Texas (among others) were not looking to commit to the Big XII.  Back in 2010 the conference was a sinking ship and every school was racing for the lifeboats.  Texas had a life yacht, but had not interest in sharing it with others.
2. The Big XII lacked leadership.  Dan Beebe was a bad commissioner who did little to strengthen the league or build unity.  (A cynic might note that the new leadership at Texas is a veiled reference to new conference commissioner Bob Bowlsby).
3. Money.  Nebraska had the opportunity to make more money in the Big Ten than the Big XII.

But since Nebraska’s exit, the Longhorns have hired a president, a new athletic director and a new football coach.

So?  That pompous jerk  you hated in high school may have a new wife, a new job, and a new house, but the odds say he’s still a ______ that you don’t want to associate with.  Is the implication here that since Nebraska struggled to beat Mack Brown teams, they should come back and take a shot at Charlie Strong’s squads?

If the Huskers completely soured on their Big Ten experience, maybe they would be open to reconciliation.

What would have to happen for NU to “completely sour” on the Big Ten?

Let’s say Jim Delaney retires and is replaced by Dan Beebe 2.0.  Ohio State assumes the role of Texas, leading coalitions to block any idea, policy, or rule that Nebraska supports.  The rest of the Big Ten West starts giving Nebraska the same beat downs as Wisconsin.  All Husker games are locked into an 11 am kickoff on BTN.  Would that be enough to make NU look elsewhere?

Personally, I think that even if NU’s B1G adventure went to hell, Nebraska would stick it out for two reasons:  1) Pride, and 2) the check Big Ten schools will get from the next TV rights deal.

One thing is for sure: The Big 12 would welcome them back with open arms.

Oh Jake.  Remember how you started strong?  You could not be more wrong here.

Intentionally or not, Nebraska (and Husker fans) burned a lot of bridges on their way out the door in 2010.  Do you think it is a coincidence that no Big XII team has scheduled Nebraska in football or basketball since NU left?  I can’t find a link, but I remember reading that Nebraska has called Big XII schools looking for basketball games, and has been refused by all.

You could make an argument that the only folks in the Big XII land who would truly welcome Nebraska back would be the hoteliers, restaurant owners, and barkeeps in Ames, Manhattan, Lawrence, and other Big XII towns.

Otherwise?  The only open arms Nebraska might see would be from a spurned rival preparing to put a “kick me” sign on NU’s back during a feigned embrace.

 

The Future of Conference Realignment

(This post is also available on NoCoastBias.com)

Another week, another round of news in the ever-changing landscape of conference affiliations.  On Wednesday, Creighton University will leave the Missouri Valley Conference to join with the so-called “Catholic Seven” (DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s, and Villanova) along with Xavier and Butler to form a basketball super conference retaining the prestigious Big East name.

The Big East is coming to the Midwest (map from Omaha.com)

Meanwhile, while the buzz has have died down a little, rumors continue to swirl around North Carolina leaving the Atlantic Coast Conference for the Big Ten.  Adding Tar Heel hoops would be a big boost for the Big Ten, who is already enjoying a banner basketball season.  (Plus, it would set the stage for the addition of a 16th team, making the conference’s “B1G” logo – which has always resembled the number 16 – a visually accurate representation of the league.

As always, these big moves will likely trigger additional moves as the conferences who lose teams look to smaller leagues to fill their vacancies.

The biggest reason behind these moves?

Money.

Fox is reportedly lined up to give the new Big East schools a big TV contract.  The Big Ten’s TV deals expire in 2016, and having a stable of big name schools and schools from big TV markets would set up the Big Ten for a very big payday.

For the cash cow sports at these schools (basketball for the Big East, football in the Big Ten), the TV deals will be a tremendous source of revenue.  Unfortunately, for pretty much every other sport at a school, conference realignment is somewhere between a nightmare and a train wreck.

But it doesn’t have to be that way.  Here is how I see the future of conference realignment playing out:

We will end up with four, 16-team super conferences.  I assume the Big Ten, Pac 12, and SEC will make up three of the four.  The fourth?  Two years ago, I would have bet the house on the ACC over the Big XII, but now it looks like the ACC is the one with the shaky foundation (especially if North Carolina leaves and Florida State continues their on-again/off-again flirtation with the Big XII).

Today, none of these leagues are currently at 16 teams, so they’ll get to that magic number by picking off the pieces from the conferences that don’t survive (Big East and potentially the ACC) as well as taking the upper tier of C-USA, Mountain West, MAC, WAC, and other smaller conference schools.  This leads us to the second prediction:

TV sets trump geography, history, or anything else when it comes to conference expansion.  We’ve already seen this with the Big Ten’s addition of Rutgers and Maryland.  Neither school is particularly close to the Big Ten’s geographic core, nor does either school do much to enhance the football prestige of the conference.  But they were added because they represent entries into large TV markets.   there will likely be some head-scratching choices made.

What does that mean going forward?  Instead of the SEC going after a seemingly natural fit like Georgia Tech or Clemson (good programs, geographically central, great rivalry with an existing SEC school) I would not be surprised to see the SEC expand into MAC or Big East country, pulling a program that lacks the prestige of Tech or Clemson, but one that opens up a new region of viewers.

I know this is starting to sound like a doomsday scenario for a lot of schools and conferences, but here is one of the key predictions:

Schools will belong to multiple conferences.  I really only see the super conference affiliation being in effect for revenue producing sports (i.e. football and men’s basketball).  For them, being in a league with a fat TV contract is a smart move to maximize their potential revenue.

But for the smaller, non-revenue producing sports (i.e. pretty much everything else), realignment is a potential fiscal fiasco.  Look at Creighton:  all of their MVC foes are within 600 miles of their Omaha campus.  In the Big East, Creighton’s soccer, baseball, and other Olympic sports teams will now just one conference opponent (DePaul) within 500 miles of home.  Instead, they will be making multiple trips to the East Coast to play their new Big East rivals.

At some point, college Athletics Directors are going to wonder why they are throwing money away (and pulling student-athletes out of class for days on end) to travel halfway across the country to compete with schools they have little in common with – especially when there are other programs right in their own backyard.

I predict that in addition to the football/men’s hoops affiliation, schools will also belong to smaller, regional conferences for Olympic and other non-revenue sports.  These conferences will greatly resemble the old leagues we grew up with (Big Eight, Pac 10, Southwestern Conference, etc.) where geographical proximity is a primary consideration.

It just makes financial sense:  Schools can dramatically cut travel costs and operating expenses for sports that already lose money.  TV networks don’t get burdened with a bunch of lower end TV rights for volleyball matches, wrestling duals, and gymnastics meets that the average fan does not want to watch.  If there is an audience for SEC baseball or Big East lacrosse games, the smaller leagues can sell those rights independently.

Yes, it may be a little confusing for fans who have always identified their school with a single league to have to familiarize themselves with two different sets of conference rivals, but it sure beats cutting the baseball team because your new conference foes up north don’t play or losing the gymnastics team because it is too expensive to fly them all over the country for meets.

The one thing I don’t know is when schools will start breaking their sports out into multiple conferences.  I would not be surprised if it happens in the next few years as university budgets continue to tighten, and athletic departments realize the insanity of driving through the campuses of two former conference rivals to play a school that nobody cares about.

Regardless of what happens, the next few years will continue to be an exciting time of conference upheaval.

College Football Playoffs – Blow it all up

I am not a proponent of a playoff in college football.

I feel this way for a number of different reasons, but my key reason is this:  Playoff proponents hate the BCS and the bowls because they are “unfair”, yet there has never been a playoff proposal that is “fair”.  They are subjective on who gets in and who gets left out, they do not always reward conference championships, providing equal footing for all teams.

So I decided to find a fair way to do a playoff – one that addresses some of the core feelings of the playoff and anti-playoff crowds.  Namely:

• The regular season and results on the field, need to matter
• You cannot play for the championship if you do not win your conference.
• All teams need to have a clear path to a championship – no haves and have-nots

Accomplishing these goals is not an easy task.  But I have done it.  That is the good news.

The bad news?  Well, that really depends on your point of view.  Let’s just say that creating a “fair” system meant blowing up almost everything that is in place today.  And I mean everything.  Quite frankly, that is both good and bad.